← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Stoke win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Stoke +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Derek Mazou-Sacko · Millwall |
| 15' | 🟨 | Casper De Norre · Millwall |
| 20' | ⚽ | Camiel Neghli · Millwall |
| 55' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 60' | ⚽ (og) | Caleb Taylor · Stoke |
| 69' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
| 81' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 475.00 | 506.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1422.90 | 1565.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.54 | 6.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.75 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 55.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -1.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.32 | — |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.20 |