← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 70% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 19% | 4.75 |
| Bristol City win | 11% | 8.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Southampton −1.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.38 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Sam Bell · Bristol City |
| 28' | 🟨 | Shea Charles · Southampton |
| 29' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Southampton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sam Bell · Bristol City |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ross Stewart · Southampton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cyle Larin · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 294.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1573.30 | 1448.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 59.65 | -4.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| league points | 75.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 1.14 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.82 | — |
| state index | 1.22 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.08 |