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QPR 1–2 Swansea

← EFL Championship 2025-26 Β· Tue, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Doughty

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
QPR win42%2.20
Swansea win29%3.20
Draw29%3.25

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea βˆ’0.2551%1.88
QPR βˆ’0.2549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.88
Over49%1.98

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Ronald · Swansea
23'🟨Kieran Morgan · QPR
55'🟨Kealey Adamson · QPR
60'🟨Rhys Norrington-Davies · QPR
80'⚽ (pen)Žan Vipotnik · Swansea
90'🟨Ronald · Swansea
90'⚽Rhys Norrington-Davies · QPR

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots17
5On target11
4Corners5
11Fouls7
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricQPRSwansea
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.580.76
cards avg (last 5)4.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueLoftus Road
coach days
294.00
294.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-6.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.209.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.943.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.13
dominance (last 5)0.490.36
elo1446.791463.76
elo momentum (last 5)16.40-9.29
eye test v10.09-0.44
eye trend v1-0.230.06
first sub minute (last 10)54.3056.10
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.991.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.630.61
league points58.0057.00
league rank11.0015.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4077.20
possession avg (last 5)47.4045.80
rest days3.303.20
scorer concentration0.200.38
season ppg1.351.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-8.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.409.80
skill v1-0.26-0.15
solidity v10.47-1.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.00
squad ageβ€”26.52
state index-0.11-0.53
sterile dominance v1-0.12-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
travel kmβ€”256.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.991.79
xg for avg (last 5)1.181.49