← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Wrexham win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Oxford −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ryan Longman · Wrexham |
| 40' | ⚽ | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Aidomo Emakhu · Oxford |
| 66' | 🟨 | Issa Kaboré · Wrexham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stanley Mills · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Wrexham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 263.00 | 1755.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1547.49 | 1640.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.38 | -14.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| league points | 44.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.02 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.58 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 29.09 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.12 |