← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Derby win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Norwich −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mohamed Touré · Norwich |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mohamed Touré · Norwich |
| 54' | ⚽ | David Ozoh · Derby |
| 60' | ⚽ | Liam Gibbs · Norwich |
| 69' | 🟨 | Vladan Kovačević · Norwich |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days |
| 263.00 |
| 444.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1513.66 | 1493.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.18 | 16.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 61.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 25.71 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 188.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.53 |