← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 19, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Middlesbrough win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Ipswich −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | David Strelec · Middlesbrough |
| 30' | ⚽ | Kasey McAteer · Ipswich |
| 52' | 🟨 | Matt Targett · Middlesbrough |
| 64' | ⚽ | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 86' | 🟨 | Adilson Malanda · Middlesbrough |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Jack Clarke · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dan Neil · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeremy Sarmiento · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Callum Brittain · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days |
| 1600.00 |
| 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 8.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 12.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.77 |
| elo | 1571.37 | 1522.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.40 | -33.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| league points | 75.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 67.60 |
| rest days | 4.67 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 15.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 22.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 1.78 |
| solidity v1 | -0.03 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 27.73 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 321.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 2.30 |