← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 51% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| Stoke win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Stoke −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 33' | ⚽ | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 47' | 🟨 | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Racecourse Ground |
| coach days | 1752.00 | 472.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1557.86 | 1430.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -54.17 | -7.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 64.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | -1.80 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 30.74 | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.62 |