⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Watford 0–2 Sheffield United

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win41%2.25
Watford win33%2.82
Draw26%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Watford +0.2553%1.80
Sheffield United +0.2547%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.67
Under43%2.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Imrân Louza · Watford
50'⚽Patrick Bamford · Sheffield United
59'⚽Patrick Bamford · Sheffield United
65'🟨Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United
75'🟨Danny Ings · Sheffield United
81'🟨Sydie Peck · Sheffield United
90'🟨Matthew Pollock · Watford
90'🟨Tahith Chong · Sheffield United

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots11
3On target5
8Corners5
11Fouls9
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWatfordSheffield United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.520.69
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVicarage Road
coach days
107.00
869.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.402.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.354.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.18
dominance (last 5)0.470.55
elo1439.281496.95
elo momentum (last 5)-7.47-10.66
eye test v1-0.010.76
eye trend v1-0.010.47
first sub minute (last 10)54.3054.60
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.720.60
league points57.0054.00
league rank12.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.007.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)54.4053.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.190.18
season ppg1.361.29
shot diff avg (last 5)0.403.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.8014.80
skill v1-0.050.65
solidity v1-0.540.00
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.60
squad age27.4127.17
state index-0.41-0.16
sterile dominance v10.280.11
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.270.30
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
travel km—204.50
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.791.27
xg for avg (last 5)0.931.85