← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Swansea win | 23% | 4.00 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Southampton +0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Marko Stamenic · Swansea |
| 23' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Swansea |
| 25' | 🟨 | Melker Widell · Swansea |
| 25' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Shea Charles · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cameron Archer · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 12 |
| 3 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days |
| 291.00 |
| 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1472.87 | 1564.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.93 | 58.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.86 |
| league points | 57.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.98 |
| solidity v1 | -0.78 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 27.00 |
| state index | -0.42 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 195.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.80 |