← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 38% | 2.45 |
| Birmingham win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Birmingham +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
| 29' | 🟨 | Paddy McNair · Hull |
| 55' | 🟨 | Semi Ajayi · Hull |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
| 77' | ⚽ | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kieran Dowell · Hull |
| 86' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Birmingham |
| 88' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 291.00 | 686.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1479.57 | 1529.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.17 | -19.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 68.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 30.53 | 25.44 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 173.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.95 |