← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 56% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| QPR win | 20% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| QPR −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Derek Mazou-Sacko · Millwall |
| 17' | ⚽ | Camiel Neghli · Millwall |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ronnie Edwards · QPR |
| 30' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR |
| 34' | 🟨 | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac Hayden · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.00 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 503.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1557.08 | 1455.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.30 | 43.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 73.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.69 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.60 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 0.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.49 |