← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 47% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Oxford win | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Derby −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Jaydon Banel · Derby |
| 26' | 🟨 | David Ozoh · Derby |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sammie Szmodics · Derby |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Oscar Fraulo · Derby |
| 88' | 🟨 | Derry Murkin · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 441.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1486.98 | 1428.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.35 | 8.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 63.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.71 | — |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.84 |