← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 63% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.20 |
| Blackburn win | 15% | 6.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Blackburn −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Sean McLoughlin · Blackburn |
| 7' | 🟨 | Taylor Gardner-Hickman · Blackburn |
| 24' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Southampton |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 86' | ⚽ | Cameron Archer · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 287.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1711.12 | 1571.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 57.31 | 31.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.78 |
| league points | 69.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -0.91 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 27.24 |
| state index | 1.35 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 322.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.13 |