← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Stoke win | 35% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Stoke +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Adam Forshaw · Blackburn |
| 31' | 🟨 | Moussa Baradji · Blackburn |
| 33' | 🟨 | Yuki Ohashi · Blackburn |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Alebiosu · Blackburn |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | Yuri Ribeiro · Stoke |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Stoke |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
| 87' | 🟥 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
| 88' | 🟨 | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 465.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1571.15 | 1569.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.36 | 20.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 54.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.67 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 85.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.13 |