← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 59% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.10 |
| Derby win | 18% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Southampton −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Derby |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dion Sanderson · Derby |
| 55' | 🟨 | Oscar Fraulo · Derby |
| 62' | ⚽ | Leo Scienza · Southampton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cyle Larin · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 284.00 |
| 434.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1548.19 | 1493.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 56.23 | 21.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.71 |
| league points | 66.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 25.71 |
| state index | 0.92 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 223.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.60 |