← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 41% | 2.30 |
| Watford win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Oxford −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Myles Peart-Harris · Oxford |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Myles Peart-Harris · Oxford |
| 71' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mark Harris · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days |
| 253.00 |
| 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 4.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1414.31 | 1453.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.62 | -6.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 41.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.41 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.50 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.14 |