← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Bristol City win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| QPR −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Jonathan Varane · QPR |
| 55' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR |
| 66' | 🟨 | Noah Eile · Bristol City |
| 75' | 🟨 | Daniel Bennie · QPR |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rhys Norrington-Davies · QPR |
| 89' | 🟨 | Delano Burgzorg · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| coach days |
| 284.00 |
| 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1456.80 | 1463.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.77 | -0.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| league points | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.65 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.90 |