← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Millwall win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| West Brom −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Alex Mowatt · West Brom |
| 71' | 🟨 | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days |
| 9.00 |
| 495.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1422.51 | 1559.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.49 | -10.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 45.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 4.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -1.05 |
| solidity v1 | 1.44 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.43 | — |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.29 |