← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 36% | 2.57 |
| Southampton win | 35% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Southampton +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Kuryu Matsuki · Southampton |
| 22' | ⚽ | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 37' | 🟨 | Callum Doyle · Wrexham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Southampton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Welington · Southampton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ryan Longman · Wrexham |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ross Stewart · Southampton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Racecourse Ground |
| coach days |
| 1741.00 |
| 280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1598.53 | 1522.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.80 | 38.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.89 |
| league points | 64.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 17.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -0.61 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 30.74 | 27.28 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.42 |