← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 48% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Charlton win | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Watford −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Greg Docherty · Charlton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nampalys Mendy · Watford |
| 38' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Charlton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Matt Godden · Charlton |
| 74' | ⚽ | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Egil Selvik · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 14 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 17 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 95.00 |
| 795.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1454.32 | 1481.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.05 | -2.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 56.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.87 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 29.66 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 35.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.14 |