← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 61% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Birmingham win | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Ipswich −1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Carlos Vicente · Birmingham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Birmingham |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ben Johnson · Ipswich |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kasey McAteer · Ipswich |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jack Taylor · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1587.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1568.61 | 1521.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.78 | -32.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 69.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 16.06 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 210.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.96 |