← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Stoke win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Stoke −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Sydney Agina · Stoke |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jaydon Banel · Derby |
| 69' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jaydon Banel · Derby |
| 89' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 429.00 | 460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1635.60 | 1581.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.73 | -4.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 60.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 26.13 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 49.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.55 |