← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
| Oxford win | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over | 40% | 2.38 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Keshi Anderson · Portsmouth |
| 17' | 🟥 | Connor Ogilvie · Portsmouth |
| 48' | ⚽ | Brodie Spencer · Oxford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Brodie Spencer · Oxford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Will Vaulks · Oxford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · Portsmouth |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marlon Pack · Portsmouth |
| 78' | 🟨 | Michał Helik · Oxford |
| 81' | ⚽ | Will Lankshear · Oxford |
| 87' | ⚽ | Andre Dozzell · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days |
| 1191.00 |
| 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1420.11 | 1412.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.60 | 20.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.74 |
| league points | 41.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 33.00 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -1.25 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.08 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -2.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.77 |