← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 59% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Derby win | 18% | 5.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Coventry −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Frank Onyeka · Coventry |
| 29' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jack Rudoni · Coventry |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jack Rudoni · Coventry |
| 81' | 🟨 | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days |
| 518.00 |
| 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1621.49 | 1487.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.38 | 29.91 |
| eye test v1 | 1.70 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| league points | 80.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 13.07 | 13.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | -0.61 |
| solidity v1 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.71 |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 52.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.49 | 1.65 |