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West Brom 2–2 Wrexham

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win45%2.05
Draw28%3.30
Wrexham win27%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom −0.2551%1.88
Wrexham −0.2549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.73
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Isaac Price · West Brom
38'🟨Issa Kaboré · Wrexham
38'⚽ (pen)Josh Maja · West Brom
47'⚽Josh Windass · Wrexham
61'🟨Callum Styles · West Brom
62'⚽George Dobson · Wrexham
74'🟨George Campbell · West Brom

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots13
4On target3
4Corners6
9Fouls8
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWest BromWrexham
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.640.67
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Hawthorns
coach days
2.00
1737.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.09
dominance (last 5)0.660.42
elo1416.921601.98
elo momentum (last 5)31.87-9.03
eye test v10.62-1.08
eye trend v11.08-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)53.9056.40
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.600.63
league points43.0063.00
league rank20.007.00
matches since blank6.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4076.40
possession avg (last 5)50.6047.80
rest days12.9612.96
scorer concentration0.230.18
season ppg1.101.62
shot diff avg (last 5)8.40-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.209.40
skill v10.23-0.53
solidity v11.39-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.20
squad age25.9430.74
state index0.260.18
sterile dominance v1-0.760.14
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.390.24
threat rate (last 5)0.350.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.721.62
xg for avg (last 5)1.720.84