← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 38% | 2.45 |
| Watford win | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Watford +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Edoardo Bove · Watford |
| 26' | ⚽ | Rayan Kolli · QPR |
| 29' | 🟨 | Rayan Kolli · QPR |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jimmy Dunne · QPR |
| 49' | 🟨 | Pierre Ekwah · Watford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 62' | 🟨 | Saba Goglichidze · Watford |
| 63' | ⚽ | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 84' | 🟨 | Richard Kone · QPR |
| 85' | ⚽ | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kwame Poku · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| coach days | 276.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1447.11 | 1463.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.39 | 11.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 53.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.41 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 19.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.34 |