← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Millwall win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Middlesbrough −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 13' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 26' | ⚽ | Dael Fry · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
| 86' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 32 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 17 | Corners | 6 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 245.00 | 488.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1695.90 | 1689.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.49 | 24.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| league points | 71.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.67 | -0.71 |
| solidity v1 | 1.53 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.16 | 24.98 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.53 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 1.74 |