← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 48% | 1.96 |
| Leicester win | 27% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Watford −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Formose Mendy · Watford |
| 17' | 🟨 | Stephy Mavididi · Leicester |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jordan James · Leicester |
| 54' | 🟨 | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Egil Selvik · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 79.00 |
| 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1466.16 | 1414.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.15 | -9.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 55.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.43 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 26.20 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 119.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 0.63 |