← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 60% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| Oxford win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −1 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Southampton −1 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Southampton |
| 13' | ⚽ | Shea Charles · Southampton |
| 31' | 🟨 | Stanley Mills · Oxford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Brodie Spencer · Oxford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Michał Helik · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 263.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1513.66 | 1420.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.46 | 30.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| league points | 60.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 33.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -1.64 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.87 | — |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -2.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.31 |