← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 38% | 2.45 |
| QPR win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| QPR +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over | 40% | 2.38 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 22' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 24' | ⚽ | Rayan Kolli · QPR |
| 29' | ⚽ | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 32' | 🟨 | Isaac Hayden · QPR |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Portsmouth |
| 38' | ⚽ | John Swift · Portsmouth |
| 55' | ⚽ | Rayan Kolli · QPR |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rhys Norrington-Davies · QPR |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Richard Kone · QPR |
| 87' | ⚽ | Richard Kone · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Richard Kone · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Terry Devlin · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| coach days | 263.00 | 1175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 7.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 4.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1571.09 | 1561.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.30 | -37.35 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 50.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -1.06 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 27.95 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 98.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.96 |