← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Millwall win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Ipswich −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jack Clarke · Ipswich |
| 50' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ivan Azón · Ipswich |
| 86' | 🟨 | Derek Mazou-Sacko · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1571.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1570.63 | 1559.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.28 | 37.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 68.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.00 | — |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.65 |