← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Derby win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Derby +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Osman · Birmingham |
| 43' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Derby |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jonathan Panzo · Birmingham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jhon Solís · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 413.00 | 658.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1632.71 | 1627.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.82 | -36.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 57.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 4.69 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.21 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 26.26 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 56.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.86 |