← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 53% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Blackburn win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Blackburn +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adilson Malanda · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 232.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1419.38 | 1551.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.44 | 11.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| league points | 42.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 1.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.73 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 125.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 2.17 |