← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Norwich win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Southampton −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Anis Ben Slimane · Norwich |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jack Stacey · Norwich |
| 41' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
| 48' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Pelle Mattsson · Norwich |
| 82' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Bragg · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 260.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1505.56 | 1498.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.33 | 32.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 57.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.18 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 266.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.69 |