← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Wrexham win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Watford −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Marc Bola · Watford |
| 38' | ⚽ | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 49' | ⚽ | Max Cleworth · Wrexham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edoardo Bove · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edoardo Bove · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 75.00 |
| 1720.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1446.75 | 1612.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.50 | 16.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 52.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 30.74 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.10 |