← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Mar 16, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
| Derby win | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Derby −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Derby |
| 40' | 🟨 | Conor Chaplin · Portsmouth |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sammie Szmodics · Derby |
| 53' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 67' | 🟨 | John Swift · Portsmouth |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joe Ward · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oscar Fraulo · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days |
| 1170.00 |
| 408.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.79 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1443.92 | 1466.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.24 | -16.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 40.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.01 | 6.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 1.17 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.84 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 237.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.48 |