← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 37% | 2.45 |
| Stoke win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Stoke +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Tomáš Rigo · Stoke |
| 28' | ⚽ | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
| 50' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nampalys Mendy · Watford |
| 60' | 🟨 | Maksym Talovierov · Stoke |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tommy Simkin · Stoke |
| 77' | ⚽ | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 85' | ⚽ | Sam Gallagher · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 437.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1576.30 | 1605.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.29 | 11.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| league points | 48.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.95 | 25.18 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.10 |