← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T Reeves
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ipswich win | 76% | 1.19 |
| Draw | 16% | 5.50 |
| Sheffield Weds win | 8% | 12.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sheffield Weds +1.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Ipswich +1.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.