← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Blackburn win | 22% | 4.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Millwall −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | ⚽ | Luke Cundle · Millwall |
| 59' | 🟥 | Zak Sturge · Millwall |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mathias Jørgensen · Blackburn |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mathias Jørgensen · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Atcheson · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 468.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1575.38 | 1403.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.16 | -20.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 68.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.20 |