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Oxford 1–1 Charlton

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oxford win44%2.10
Draw29%3.20
Charlton win27%3.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oxford −0.2551%1.88
Charlton −0.2549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Luke Chambers · Charlton
38'🟨Michał Helik · Oxford
50'🟨Harry Clarke · Charlton
57'⚽ (pen)Cameron Brannagan · Oxford
66'🟨Amari'i Bell · Charlton
77'🟨Stanley Mills · Oxford
90'🟨Ciaron Brown · Oxford
90'🟨Joe Rankin-Costello · Charlton
90'⚽ (pen)Charlie Kelman · Charlton

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots5
2On target1
3Corners6
14Fouls17
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOxfordCharlton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.580.66
cards avg (last 5)0.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKassam Stadium
coach days225.00772.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-4.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.602.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.04
dominance (last 5)0.430.34
elo1543.721582.42
elo momentum (last 5)37.8921.53
eye test v1-0.01-0.98
eye trend v10.81-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)56.1051.20
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
league points38.0047.00
league rank22.0017.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.8072.00
possession avg (last 5)31.2037.80
rest days2.702.70
scorer concentration0.230.23
season ppg1.031.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.80-10.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.007.60
skill v1-1.71-1.25
solidity v1-0.010.40
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.40
squad age25.4428.06
state index0.290.14
sterile dominance v1-2.61-0.47
threat rate (last 10)0.310.24
threat rate (last 3)0.410.24
threat rate (last 5)0.400.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.331.28
xg for avg (last 5)1.190.78