← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 66% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 19% | 4.75 |
| Bristol City win | 14% | 6.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bristol City −1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.38 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Noah Eile · Bristol City |
| 43' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
| 53' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Bristol City |
| 53' | 🟨 | Scott Twine · Bristol City |
| 58' | 🟨 | Sinclair Armstrong · Bristol City |
| 65' | ⚽ | Leo Castledine · Middlesbrough |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adam Randell · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 225.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1555.94 | 1449.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.61 | -37.70 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 69.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.96 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.73 | — |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.08 |