← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Southampton win | 25% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Coventry −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | ⚽ | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Liam Kitching · Coventry |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luke Woolfenden · Coventry |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kuryu Matsuki · Southampton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ellis Simms · Coventry |
| 86' | 🟨 | Cameron Archer · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Peretz · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Victor Torp · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days | 498.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1622.72 | 1490.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.02 | 33.34 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 77.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 2.69 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | 1.11 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.48 |
| state index | 0.98 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 171.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.36 |