← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 43% | 2.15 |
| West Brom win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Southampton +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Jayson Molumby · West Brom |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cameron Bragg · Southampton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Daniel Imray · West Brom |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ousmane Diakité · West Brom |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 222.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1382.02 | 1491.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.99 | 43.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 11.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | 0.85 | 1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 28.24 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 182.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 0.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.52 |