← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 34% | 2.70 |
| Oxford win | 34% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Oxford +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Sean McLoughlin · Blackburn |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jamie Donley · Oxford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Hayden Carter · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 3 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days |
| 222.00 |
| 222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1411.68 | 1411.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.83 | 7.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| league points | 35.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 4.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | -0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.08 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.37 |