← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| QPR win | 18% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| QPR −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Patrick Roberts · Birmingham |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Osman · Birmingham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ethan Laird · Birmingham |
| 81' | 🟨 | James Beadle · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days |
| 648.00 |
| 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1544.17 | 1417.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.46 | -46.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| league points | 49.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 3.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.62 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.35 | — |
| state index | -0.61 | -1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 155.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.17 |