β EFL Championship 2025-26 Β· Tue, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 42% | 2.25 |
| Swansea win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea β0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Portsmouth β0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | β½ | Ethan Galbraith Β· Swansea |
| 33' | π¨ | Ε½an Vipotnik Β· Swansea |
| 39' | β½ | Josh Key Β· Swansea |
| 64' | β½ | Jacob Brown Β· Portsmouth |
| 69' | π¨ | Madiodio Dia Β· Portsmouth |
| 71' | π¨ | Joel Ward Β· Swansea |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days |
| 1164.00 |
| 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.77 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1455.23 | 1469.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.99 | -3.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| league points | 40.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 1.16 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | β | 26.10 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | β | 221.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.00 |