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Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea

← EFL Championship 2025-26 Β· Tue, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: G. Ward

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Portsmouth win42%2.25
Swansea win30%3.10
Draw28%3.30

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea βˆ’0.2552%1.85
Portsmouth βˆ’0.2548%2.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.30

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Ethan Galbraith · Swansea
33'🟨Žan Vipotnik · Swansea
39'⚽Josh Key · Swansea
64'⚽Jacob Brown · Portsmouth
69'🟨Madiodio Dia · Portsmouth
71'🟨Joel Ward · Swansea

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
9Shots8
4On target3
6Corners0
9Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPortsmouthSwansea
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.150.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.710.52
cards avg (last 5)1.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueFratton Park
coach days
1164.00
252.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.06
corner diff avg (last 5)3.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.773.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.11
dominance (last 5)0.640.53
elo1455.231469.49
elo momentum (last 5)26.99-3.87
eye test v1-0.16-0.60
eye trend v1-0.47-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)62.2057.30
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.600.72
league points40.0049.00
league rank20.0013.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0080.80
possession avg (last 5)57.2059.80
rest days3.303.20
scorer concentration0.150.41
season ppg1.141.36
shot diff avg (last 5)6.402.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.4013.60
skill v10.010.39
solidity v11.160.37
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.80
squad ageβ€”26.10
state index-0.06-0.32
sterile dominance v10.330.85
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
travel kmβ€”221.00
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.661.19
xg for avg (last 5)0.961.00