← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Derby win | 25% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Millwall −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
| 55' | 🟨 | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dion Sanderson · Derby |
| 62' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 464.00 |
| 402.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1569.62 | 1472.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.07 | 1.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 65.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.54 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.45 |