← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 40% | 2.35 |
| Bristol City win | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Leicester −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Benjamin Nelson · Leicester |
| 28' | ⚽ | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 36' | 🟨 | Hamza Choudhury · Leicester |
| 61' | 🟨 | Neto Borges · Bristol City |
| 63' | 🟨 | Benjamin Nelson · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sinclair Armstrong · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days |
| 221.00 |
| 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1418.71 | 1463.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.47 | -21.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| league points | 41.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.04 | — |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.94 |