← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 52% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| QPR win | 22% | 4.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| QPR +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | David Strelec · Middlesbrough |
| 68' | ⚽ | Alan Browne · Middlesbrough |
| 72' | ⚽ | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 3 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| coach days |
| 250.00 |
| 219.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1432.49 | 1554.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.26 | 7.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| league points | 47.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 5.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.92 |
| solidity v1 | -0.55 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.73 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 347.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.44 |