← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 51% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Stoke win | 22% | 4.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Stoke −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lamine Cissé · Stoke |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ronald · Swansea |
| 36' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 36' | 🟥 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 53' | ⚽ | Žan Vipotnik · Swansea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Swansea |
| 79' | 🟨 | Maksym Talovierov · Stoke |
| 85' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days |
| 249.00 |
| 430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1457.44 | 1448.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.63 | -7.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 191.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.88 |